Homer becomes aware that Lisa can predict football results with incredible accuracy, and the two bond when watching the games. Homer places bets in Moe's with Lisa's predictions, and makes a bundle. However, when Lisa finds out what Homer's been doing, she calls off the bets - leaving him with a final prediction for the Super Bowl - if Washington wins, she loves him, but if Buffalo wins, she won't. Washington comes from behind and win.
Armed with high-cholesterol snacks, Homer sits down to another Sunday of football. Lisa enters the room to show her dad a shoebox apartment she made for her Malibu Stacy dolls. Homer is not really that interested, though, especially after Denver – on whom he has bet $20 – gives up a quick touchdown.
Lisa complains to Marge, who suggests spending some "quality time" with Homer by taking up his interests. Lisa decides to join her father on the couch, and an annoyed Homer reluctantly agrees. By now, New England is crushing Denver 35-7 and has just forced another Broncos fumble. In the end, Denver loses 55-10, and Homer angrily blames the TV (and sports anchorman "Smooth" Jimmy Apollo) for losing his bet.
Homer decides to try again on the Miami-Cincinnati game and calls a 1-900 "guaranteed pick" service for advice; however, it soon becomes clear the only thing "The Coach" wants is the caller's money. A desperate Homer turns to Lisa to pick a winner, and she picks the Dolphins, and Homer quickly calls Moe's Tavern to place his $50 wager. Lisa questions Homer about the call, and likens sports betting to putting a lot of toppings on ice cream. In the end, the Dolphins win, and Homer and Lisa celebrate. Meanwhile, Marge has taken Bart shopping were she proceeds to do everything to embarrass and humiliate Bart, buying ugly and nerdy clothes and ignoring his distaste, opening his dressing room door while he is in his underwear while girls watch and leaving without closing it, ignoring any comments he has about being beaten up if he wears these clothes and leaving Bart to be tormented by bullies thinking they are his friends.
Lisa becomes very adept at choosing winners of football games, and Homer cleans up. Homer declares every Sunday "Daddy-Daughter Day." With his new money, he starts buying expensive presents for the family and treating them to fine dining. Marge eventually wants to know where Homer's extra income is coming from and gets the truth, but Homer says it's not really a big deal.
The next day at breakfast, Lisa says she is looking forward to spending the "Daddy-Daughter Day" after Super Bowl XXVI going hiking at Mount Springfield. However, Homer announces he had already made plans with Barney to go bowling, and that "Daddy-Daughter Day" is over until the next football season, making Lisa realize that all Homer really wanted was to exploit her prognostic abilities to help him gamble. Marge calls Homer a "very selfish man," and Bart taunts him with the new swearing device that Homer bought for him. Heartbroken and tormented by a dream that she grows up to be a three times divorced, tired, chain smoking casino hopper, Lisa then gives up all the Malibu Stacy toys that Homer bought for her.
Homer realizes he needs to make amends with Lisa, but she is too hurt to even talk with him. In fact, she makes a cryptic prediction as to the winner of the game: If she still loves Homer, Washington will win; if she doesn't, Buffalo. Homer becomes even more anxious over his relationship with Lisa as Super Bowl Sunday approaches. When he hears Lisa mournfully play her saxophone, he leaves for Moe's Tavern to watch the game.
Homer mopes throughout the game, especially after Buffalo gets a 14-7 halftime lead. The game is highlighted by a corny halftime commercial for Duff Beer, an equally silly halftime show and Troy McClure's promo for his new situation comedy, which premieres right after the Super Bowl. In the end, Washington rallies in the second half and scores at the last second to win the game. Homer is happy and Bart proudly says to Lisa that she still loves Homer, in which she agrees.
Homer cancels his bowling date with Barney and – on the Sunday after the Super Bowl – makes good on his promise to go hiking up Mount Springfield with Lisa.
During the end credits, a marching band version of the theme is played.